Can Roulette Be Predicted At A
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Can Roulette Be Predicted Like

Most experts agree that so-called “sector slicing” isn’t a realistic way to predict even a subset of roulette numbers, but let’s look at the math of why that would be great if you could pull it off. When you place a single number bet, you have a 1/38 probability of winning that bet. The payoff is 35 to 1, so the casino has an obvious edge. The odds of an accurate prediction could easily be less than the odds of roulette itself. In which case it doesn't really matter, does it? Anyway, if it does become possible to predict a result with high confidence, the casinos with their admittedly superior funding resources would just modify the way the tables are run.

The Myth of Roulette Dealer Signature and 'Section Shooting'
By Steve Forte

(From Blackjack Forum Vol. XII #2, June 1992)
Can roulette be predicted as a

© 1992 Blackjack Forum
Note: Arnold Snyder's response to this article, 'How to Win at Roulette, Part 2: Dealer Steering and Tell Play,' has been posted on February 7, 2013. See the link at the top left.

[Note from Arnold Snyder on the background of this article: In this article, Steve Forte is responding to a number of assertions put forward by Laurance Scott in his article Nevada Roulette in the Sept. 1991 issue of Blackjack Forum regarding roulette 'dealer signature' and 'section shooting' (attempts to steer or aim the ball to a desired sector of the wheel). Laurance Scott has proposed that roulette dealer signature is exploitable by players, and that roulette section shooting (or steering) is a common method of dealer cheating at roulette.

Steve Forte's position is that dealer steering is impossible.

I have published my own response to this article and Scott's, 'A Winning Roulette Strategy for the Modern Game: Dealer Steering and Tell Play' in February 2013. You can find a link at the top left.]

Roulette Dealer Section Shooting

After first reading “Nevada Roulette” by Laurance Scott (Blackjack Forum Vol. XI #3, September 1991), I was left with a number of puzzling observations. There were so many inaccuracies regarding Nevada roulette versus roulette played elsewhere, modern wheels, dealer job security, the roulette “hold,” system players, countermeasures, hustling for tokes and the overall general conduct of the industry.

The thrust of the article had little to do with the controversial idea of dealer aiming, or “section shooting,” at roulette, but described Scott's beliefs about supposedly common countermeasures used against winning players. I find it difficult to believe these practices could get past a real expert roulette player more than once, nor would I consider the practices “cheating.”

Laurance Scott is probably more qualified than most to describe the physics, technical factors and methods he believes would be used to section shoot. But aside from the ridiculous “Jane gets cheated” scenario, and the statement: “…the characteristics that make the wheel beatable from the player’s standpoint are the same characteristics which allow experienced dealers to cheat players by ‘aiming’ for sections,” there isn’t even a brief description or possible theory as to how it’s actually done.

It’s been over 15 years since I dealt the wheel and first heard the stories about roulette section shooting. I remember trying to spin the ball the same way from the same starting point and tracking my results. There never was any correlation.

Years later I learned that this “same spin, same starting point, fall into the groove” reasoning was fallacious, and just one of many traps you fall into when you try to convince yourself that this “skill” is possible. I also witnessed my first demonstration of roulette section shooting from a 20-year veteran, and it was far less than convincing. After years of listening to the debate I’ve found that those who support such claims seem to fall into one of three categories:

Those who believe roulette section shooting (or steering) is a manipulative skill that can be acquired with practice.

Those who contend that if beating the wheel by eye is possible then section shooting must be possible as well.

Finally there’s the group that has either heard about it, claim to have seen it done or believe they can do it themselves.

Interestingly, these views are all apparent in the article by Scott, and the subsequent letters submitted to Blackjack Forum by the ex-roulette dealer, the pit boss and Harry McArdle.

For example, in the letter from the former roulette dealer, the dealer asks: “How long would it take to learn to spin a roulette ball exactly four revolutions before dropping?” The implication is that if one can perfect the skill at this level, then one can master the technique for actual casino conditions.

I don’t believe you can rationalize in this way. Even with only one revolution and a super slow rotor, a significant margin of error still exists. As you increase revolutions (eight and nine revolutions are rarely seen, and 10 to 12 are considered very few) and pick up rotor speed, the margin of error will compound quickly eventually wiping out the skill factor.

The former roulette dealer also implies that the “skill” is easily attainable and the methodology is very straightforward. I believe these views to be a gross understatement of the difficulty. There are too many factors that move section shooting past the point of attainable manipulative skills.

Factors Against Dealer Signature or Section Shooting

Consider the capricious nature of the wheel. It is an undeniable fact that the characteristics of a specific wheel that may theoretically make it beatable one day can change the next day, or even the next minute, making the game unbeatable. Even the same dealer, same equipment and similar measurements of ball and rotor speed will yield different results at different times.

I proved this phenomenon to myself some years back after spending 17 days on the road scouting, evaluating conditions, and recording data on hundreds of wheels. Laurance Scott states the same opinion in How to Beat Roulette. He cautions: “…there are inherent factors of the game that cause wheels to phase in and out of predictability,” and: “I have scouted over 300 wheels and only a handful exhibit consistent behavior day after day.”

Many people will argue that roulette dealers after time develop “signatures” to their spins. They argue that roulette dealers “fall into a groove” and that a typical spin tends to produce similar results. I disagree. These same typical spins, produced with the same force (whether deliberately or by habit) will produce different results from day to day! How then could roulette dealers ever possibly develop “signature” spins?

What causes the unpredictable nature of a roulette spin? Basic wear and tear on the wheel. A tilted wheel, high spot(s) on the track, oil or dust on the track, temperature, oil and dust on the ball, and air density are a few of the many forces that represent the real nemesis of roulette computer teams and visual players.

Are the balls perfect spheres? Is the composition (weight) even distributed? Many experts say no and believe that these flaws are responsible for some of the strange results that one commonly encounters. I believe this phenomenon was first mentioned in the Romeo Project, a book that detailed an algorithm for roulette computer play.

Interesting side note: Don’t try to find this book, as every copy was purchased by a serious roulette computer team before it ever reached the public.

Finally, the most obvious factor, and remarkably, the one that many seem to forget: Roulette section shooting or steering would require the perfect correlation of two questionably attainable skills, not one. The roulette dealer would have to aim twice! He would first have to push the rotor to a perfectly pre-determined speed, and then spin the ball with a perfectly pre-determined force.

And the actions would have to be executed naturally to avoid suspicion. Compare these actions to those of professional bowlers, golfers, pool players and similar athletes. These pros only aim once and can literally take as much time as they want to warm up, evaluate conditions, and calculate the effects of their actions

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